The IMF has published a new working paper: “Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism”. The paper argues that while fears of a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable it is likely unwarranted. Trend analysis is used to show that while tourism market dynamics have continuously reshaped the market share distribution in the Region, all destinations have the potential for respectable growth.
The paper goes on to show that Cuba could draw as many as 3 to 5.6 million arrivals, the majority of which would comprise of new tourists to the Region. The paper estimates that Anguilla, Belize, Saint Maarten and the U.S. Virgin Islands are the more vulnerable groups to a change in US- Cuba travel policy and recommends that these countries be on particular alert to policy changes.